Retail Sales Ex Autos MoM
What is Retail Sales Ex Autos?
The US Retail Sales report, released monthly by the Census Bureau at 8:30 AM ET, measures total receipts at stores selling merchandise and food and beverage services. It covers approximately 30% of total consumer spending. The "Core Retail Sales" (ex-autos) and the "Control Group" (ex-autos, gas, building materials, food services) are watched most closely, as the Control Group feeds directly into GDP calculations.
Why does it matter for investors?
Consumer spending drives ~70% of US GDP. Strong retail sales support economic growth and corporate earnings — particularly for consumer discretionary stocks (Amazon, Target, Walmart). Weak retail sales can signal consumer fatigue or recession risk, potentially pushing the Fed toward rate cuts.
What to watch for
- ›Headline vs. Core Retail Sales (ex-auto) vs. consensus
- ›Control Group (ex-autos, gas, building materials, food services) — direct GDP input
- ›Online vs. in-store split (Amazon effect)
- ›Gasoline station sales — volatile and can distort headline if oil prices spike
- ›Prior month revisions — often significant and affect GDP tracking estimates
Why does the Control Group matter for GDP?
The retail sales Control Group (excluding autos, gas, building materials, and food services) maps most directly to the consumer spending component of GDP. It's used by economists to nowcast Q GDP before the official BEA release.
Market Reaction
QQQ & SPY price change ±5 trading days around this event
Source: Yahoo Finance