CB Consumer Confidence
What is CB Consumer Confidence?
Consumer confidence surveys measure how optimistic consumers are about their personal financial situation and the broader economy. The Conference Board Consumer Confidence Index and the University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index are the two primary US measures, each capturing different aspects of consumer psychology.
Why does it matter for investors?
Consumer confidence is a leading indicator of future consumer spending, which drives ~70% of US GDP. Sharp drops in confidence historically precede spending pullbacks and recessions. The Fed watches confidence data as a signal of economic resilience or vulnerability.
What to watch for
- ›Present Situation vs. Expectations components (gap = economic uncertainty)
- ›Labor market differential (jobs "plentiful" vs. "hard to get")
- ›1-year and 5-year inflation expectations in the Michigan survey
- ›Trend: 3-month moving average vs. prior cycle levels
What is the difference between Conference Board and Michigan consumer confidence?
The Conference Board index emphasizes labor market conditions and is released monthly. The University of Michigan survey focuses on financial conditions and inflation expectations and has a preliminary and final release each month.
Market Reaction
QQQ & SPY price change ±5 trading days around this event
Source: Yahoo Finance