Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Index

What is Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Index?

The Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Index (Business Outlook Survey) is a monthly survey of manufacturers in the Third Federal Reserve District covering Pennsylvania, New Jersey, and Delaware. Published by the Philadelphia Fed, readings above 0 indicate expansion; below 0 signals contraction. Like the Empire State index, it is released early in the month and provides a preview of national manufacturing conditions.

Why does it matter for investors?

The Philly Fed survey covers a broader and more industrially diverse region than the Empire State index, making it a widely watched regional preview of the national ISM Manufacturing PMI. Its new orders, shipments, and employment sub-indexes are tracked alongside the Empire State data to build a consensus view ahead of the national ISM release. Significant divergence between Philly Fed and Empire State often resolves in the direction of the national ISM.

What to watch for

• ›Headline index vs. 0 and vs. Empire State reading from the same month
• ›New Orders sub-index (forward demand signal)
• ›Prices Paid sub-index (upstream inflation gauge)
• ›Six-month outlook index (forward-looking business expectations)
• ›Combined signal with Empire State as ISM Manufacturing preview