Pending Home Sales MoM
What is Pending Home Sales MoM?
The Pending Home Sales Index (PHSI), released monthly by the National Association of Realtors, measures signed real estate contracts for existing single-family homes, condos, and co-ops. Because a contract signing typically precedes closing by 1–2 months, the PHSI is a leading indicator of Existing Home Sales.
Why does it matter for investors?
Pending Home Sales provide a 4–6 week forward look at Existing Home Sales closings. A rising PHSI signals improving housing demand that will flow through to closing data in upcoming months. The index is sensitive to mortgage rate changes — rate spikes often cause immediate contract cancellations and PHSI declines. Sustained PHSI weakness typically foreshadows Existing Home Sales contraction.
What to watch for
- ›MoM and YoY change vs. consensus estimate
- ›Regional breakdown — Northeast and Midwest often differ from national trend
- ›Contract cancellation rate (tracked separately by NAR)
- ›Lead-lag relationship: PHSI today ≈ Existing Home Sales in 1–2 months
How does Pending Home Sales differ from Existing Home Sales?
Pending Home Sales are counted at contract signing; Existing Home Sales are counted at closing (typically 30–60 days later). This makes PHSI a 1–2 month leading indicator of Existing Home Sales.
Market Reaction
QQQ & SPY price change ±5 trading days around this event
Source: Yahoo Finance