NY Empire State Manufacturing Index
What is NY Empire State Manufacturing?
The Empire State Manufacturing Index (also called the NY Empire State Manufacturing Survey) is published monthly by the Federal Reserve Bank of New York. It surveys manufacturing executives in New York State on general business conditions, orders, shipments, and employment. Readings above 0 indicate expansion; below 0 signals contraction. It is one of the first regional manufacturing surveys released each month.
Why does it matter for investors?
As one of the earliest manufacturing sentiment indicators released each month (typically the 15th), the Empire State survey sets expectations for the national ISM Manufacturing PMI released 2–3 weeks later. While the survey covers only New York State manufacturers, its new orders and prices paid sub-indexes have reasonable predictive value for the national data. Traders use it to fine-tune their ISM expectations.
What to watch for
- ›Headline index vs. 0 threshold and consensus estimate
- ›New Orders sub-index (forward-looking demand signal)
- ›Prices Paid vs. Prices Received (margin pressure indicator)
- ›Employment sub-index (preview of manufacturing jobs)
- ›Directional consistency with prior Philly Fed and ISM readings
When is the Empire State Manufacturing Index released?
The Empire State Manufacturing Index is released by the Federal Reserve Bank of New York on the 15th of each month (or the nearest business day) at 8:30 AM ET.
How does the Empire State index relate to ISM Manufacturing PMI?
The Empire State index is a regional leading indicator for the national ISM Manufacturing PMI, which is released 2–3 weeks later. While correlation is imperfect, extreme Empire State readings often foreshadow direction for the national ISM.
Market Reaction
QQQ & SPY price change ±5 trading days around this event
Source: Yahoo Finance