Durable Goods Orders Ex Transp MoM
What is Durable Goods Orders Ex?
The Durable Goods Orders report, released monthly by the US Census Bureau, measures new orders received by US manufacturers for goods intended to last three years or more — including aircraft, machinery, computers, appliances, and defense equipment. Core Durable Goods (ex-transportation, ex-defense, ex-aircraft) strips out volatile categories to reveal underlying business investment trends.
Why does it matter for investors?
Durable goods orders are a leading indicator of manufacturing activity and business capital expenditure. The "Core Capex" sub-component (non-defense capital goods ex-aircraft) is the best real-time proxy for business investment in GDP. When companies order new machinery and equipment, it signals confidence in future demand. Sustained weakness in core orders typically precedes earnings guidance cuts in industrials and technology sectors.
What to watch for
- ›Core Durable Goods ex-transportation vs. consensus (strips out Boeing orders)
- ›Non-defense capital goods ex-aircraft (core capex, most important sub-index)
- ›Aircraft orders from Boeing — one large order can distort the headline significantly
- ›Defense orders (government spending signal)
- ›Shipments vs. orders: gap indicates future production direction
Why is Durable Goods ex-transportation important?
Transportation orders — especially Boeing aircraft — are extremely lumpy, swinging headline durable goods by billions of dollars based on a handful of aircraft orders. Excluding transportation and defense provides a cleaner read on underlying business investment trends.
When are Durable Goods Orders released?
Durable Goods Orders are released by the Census Bureau at 8:30 AM ET, typically around the 26th of the month for the prior month's data.
Market Reaction
QQQ & SPY price change ±5 trading days around this event
Source: Yahoo Finance