ADP Employment Change
What is ADP Employment Change?
The ADP National Employment Report is a private estimate of US nonfarm private-sector employment, produced by ADP in partnership with the Stanford Digital Economy Lab. Released on the Wednesday before the official BLS jobs report at 8:15 AM ET, it covers approximately 26 million workers on ADP's payroll platform.
Why does it matter for investors?
ADP serves as an early read on the upcoming official NFP report. While its predictive accuracy is debated (correlation with BLS has varied), large deviations from consensus set market expectations for Friday's jobs report. The ADP report also includes pay growth data, providing a real-time wage inflation signal.
What to watch for
- ›ADP number vs. consensus estimate (directional signal for Friday's NFP)
- ›Pay growth data: median change in annual pay for job-stayers vs. job-changers
- ›Industry breakdown: manufacturing, leisure & hospitality, professional services
- ›How ADP compares to last month's actual NFP for directional consistency
How accurate is ADP at predicting NFP?
ADP's correlation with the official BLS jobs number has varied significantly — some months track closely, others diverge by 100,000+ jobs. Markets treat it as a directional indicator rather than a precise predictor.
Market Reaction
QQQ & SPY price change ±5 trading days around this event
Source: Yahoo Finance